I think Applause still has a good chance of being #1. After the premiere of the video on GMA, and the live performance at the VMA's, Applause will get the publicity that it rightfully deserves
For me it's specialists who voted for Grammys, not like MTV awards, and that's why I love Grammys, it's music industry who reward artists. To be honest I don't like when fans vote in others awards ceremony, it's like "who have the bigger/best fanbase?" In this case it's Katy against Gaga and I don't want to participate in this useless "war", they both deserve Grammy for they incredible work.